Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists

Europe’s favourable climate and soils are pivotal for global cereal production and Food security. Ensuring cereal productivity is an important cornerstone of this security. However, yield gaps-the differences between potential and actual yields—persist. Addressing and closing These gaps is essential for ensuring global food security. Here, we assess wheat yield gaps, the second most widely grown cereal, for selected European countries (Germany, Spain, Portugal, Denmark, and Sweden). We quantify the Efficiency yield gap—the difference between realized yields and the maximum obtainable yield for a given resource allocation. We evaluate determinants of the efficiency yield gap and test farm organisation, agro-climatic conditions, and the European Union’s (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). We combine EU Farm Accountancy Data Network farm-level data from 2004 to 2020 with simulated potential yields from the AquaCrop crop growth model. We optimize soil moisture within AquaCrop to simulate potential yields and estimate the total yield gap. Using stochastic frontier analysis, we obtain estimates of the efficiency yield gap and test determinants, among others, altitude, the share of hired labour, and the CAP reforms. Based on a sample of wheat-producing farms, we find an average wheat yield gap of 35.4% in Germany, 56.6% in Spain, 18.3% in Portugal, 34.2% in Denmark, and 42.4% in Sweden. On average, the sampled farms could increase wheat output by 3.1 t ha−1 by closing the efficiency gap and an additional 5.8 t ha−1 by bridging the gap to potential yields. We find CAP reforms to widen yield gaps. In contrast, a higher share of hired labour is positively associated with closing yield gaps in Denmark and Sweden. These findings underscore the need to address and close wheat yield gaps by, for instance, incentivizing adaptation.

Aug 26, 2025 — Aug 29, 2025